Comments on: The Coming Mortgage Crisis Part III: Low Interest Rates Do Not Make Housing More Affordable http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/ It may be cheap, but is it a Goode value? Wed, 03 Mar 2010 20:08:02 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8 hourly 1 By: bk http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-483 bk Tue, 13 May 2008 16:34:31 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-483 not sure if you're into this sort of thing, but one place to find ideas that have been profitable for me are the buys of john burbank of passport capital (219% last year) and phil falcone of harbinger capital. zinc, for example, was quite cheap on a recent pullback and then just exploded today. some of their picks are extended though. easiest places to find their holdings are tickerspy. harbinger's picks are generally at the top of finviz insider transactions. not sure if you’re into this sort of thing, but one place to find ideas that have been profitable for me are the buys of john burbank of passport capital (219% last year) and phil falcone of harbinger capital. zinc, for example, was quite cheap on a recent pullback and then just exploded today. some of their picks are extended though. easiest places to find their holdings are tickerspy. harbinger’s picks are generally at the top of finviz insider transactions.

]]> By: michael http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-482 michael Tue, 13 May 2008 14:10:17 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-482 I've heard good things about his book as well. I do really like Einhorn and I would seriously consider buying GLRE at book value. As for books, some on my to read list are O'Glove's books Quality of Earnings. I am currently reading Plight of the Fortune Tellers. Somewhere I have a list of my thoughts on the books I've read and when I get around to it I'll post my list of recommended investment books. I’ve heard good things about his book as well. I do really like Einhorn and I would seriously consider buying GLRE at book value. As for books, some on my to read list are O’Glove’s books Quality of Earnings. I am currently reading Plight of the Fortune Tellers. Somewhere I have a list of my thoughts on the books I’ve read and when I get around to it I’ll post my list of recommended investment books.

]]> By: bk http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-481 bk Tue, 13 May 2008 14:00:13 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-481 hi mike- thanks for the perspective. ah. yeah. i might hold off now. the blog, world beta, has some interesting stuff on einhorn. i might have to read his book when i get a chance. i'm on the fence as to whether it's worthwhile to read the niederhoffer book, education of a speculator. the book, moneyball, strangely enough, has had the most positive effective on my investing/trading, so maybe i'll read that again. are there any books you recommend? hi mike-

thanks for the perspective. ah. yeah. i might hold off now. the blog, world beta, has some interesting stuff on einhorn. i might have to read his book when i get a chance.

i’m on the fence as to whether it’s worthwhile to read the niederhoffer book, education of a speculator. the book, moneyball, strangely enough, has had the most positive effective on my investing/trading, so maybe i’ll read that again. are there any books you recommend?

]]> By: michael http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-480 michael Mon, 12 May 2008 19:40:37 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-480 Actually, it looks more like 15% above book. Actually, it looks more like 15% above book.

]]> By: michael http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-479 michael Mon, 12 May 2008 18:36:15 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-479 You're basically buying into his hedge fund. His management firm charges hedge fund like prices to manage the investment portfolio -- 1.5% of assets and 20% of profits, with a 150% clawback provision on losses (no money paid if there is a loss and not until the loss has been more than erased). For a fan of Einhorn it isn't a bad entry at only 10% above book. You’re basically buying into his hedge fund. His management firm charges hedge fund like prices to manage the investment portfolio — 1.5% of assets and 20% of profits, with a 150% clawback provision on losses (no money paid if there is a loss and not until the loss has been more than erased).

For a fan of Einhorn it isn’t a bad entry at only 10% above book.

]]> By: bk http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-478 bk Mon, 12 May 2008 17:16:55 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-478 mike- what are your thoughts on glre - holding company run by david einhorn, the value investor/poker champion? looks like it might be a decent entry here. mike-

what are your thoughts on glre – holding company run by david einhorn, the value investor/poker champion? looks like it might be a decent entry here.

]]> By: michael http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-477 michael Mon, 12 May 2008 15:28:44 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-477 Thanks. I'm actually planning on writing a book. Only problem is that I need to make a whole bunch more money and get a bit more famous before I could ever hope to sell the book. Thanks. I’m actually planning on writing a book. Only problem is that I need to make a whole bunch more money and get a bit more famous before I could ever hope to sell the book.

]]> By: bk http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-476 bk Mon, 12 May 2008 15:25:14 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-476 that makes sense. the one thing you really need to have with small caps and short selling is guts. i need to develop the mentality to hold through the drawdown with small caps. with shorts, i don't think i can get myself to put on a greater than 2k position and only a few here and there. there should be a book on how to mentally withstand short squeezes. clearly, you have an aptitude for reading the financials and it really seems to serve you well as the squeezes occur. kudos and keep rocking. that makes sense. the one thing you really need to have with small caps and short selling is guts. i need to develop the mentality to hold through the drawdown with small caps. with shorts, i don’t think i can get myself to put on a greater than 2k position and only a few here and there. there should be a book on how to mentally withstand short squeezes. clearly, you have an aptitude for reading the financials and it really seems to serve you well as the squeezes occur. kudos and keep rocking.

]]> By: michael http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-475 michael Mon, 12 May 2008 15:10:49 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-475 BK - that is possible. I do like CAPS as a way to get ideas. However, when I do quant I stick with the quant model. I don't second guess it because I can't backtest the performance of my second guesses. When I do short selling, it is all discretionary, and I do not pull the trigger unless I am convinced by reading the financials that I am right. BK – that is possible. I do like CAPS as a way to get ideas. However, when I do quant I stick with the quant model. I don’t second guess it because I can’t backtest the performance of my second guesses. When I do short selling, it is all discretionary, and I do not pull the trigger unless I am convinced by reading the financials that I am right.

]]> By: bk http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/comment-page-1/#comment-474 bk Mon, 12 May 2008 15:07:55 +0000 http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/08/the-coming-mortgage-crisis-part-iii-low-interest-rates-do-not-make-housing-more-affordable/#comment-474 hi mike- thanks for the perspectives. do you think it's worth checking the p123 models' output against other indicators? i was thinking a motley fool caps rating of 1 or 2 might increase the odds or maybe some technical indicator. in the past, i just blindly went with the picks. hi mike-

thanks for the perspectives. do you think it’s worth checking the p123 models’ output against other indicators? i was thinking a motley fool caps rating of 1 or 2 might increase the odds or maybe some technical indicator. in the past, i just blindly went with the picks.

]]>